Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 212033
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE
EVENING HOUR. SCATTERED SW-/RW- MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. THEN SHOULD SEE DRYING TREND WITH WIND DECREASING.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 TO 30 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MAY NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STILL HAVE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE
OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S MOST AREAS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VERY DRY AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STACKED LOW OF EASTERN CANADA
AND UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK THURSDAY...BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE NAM
AND GFS ARE SHOWING MIXING TO ABOVE 850 MB BY AFTERNOON...FORCING
DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH
GREEN VEGETATION YET TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MARKED MODIFICATION OF
DEW POINTS AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOWERED DEW POINTS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
EJECTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LARGELY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY
MAKE IT NORTH FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN COME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THIS
FEATURE. 12Z ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE ENERGY INTO A NORTHERN WAVE
TAKING IT INTO CANADA...AND A SOUTHERN WAVE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THE SOAKING TREND IN TEXAS AND THE
GULF COAST. GFS HAS TAKEN THE LOOK OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A CLOSED
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN. CONTINUED WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS...AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CIGS WILL LIFT AND GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INTO WESTERN WI.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KTS OVER THE
MN PORTION OF THE AREA. SKC-FEW040-050 INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST WITH GUTSY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.

KMSP...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS DURING THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST VCSH
AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH.
COULD BRIEFLY HIT MVFR WITH PASSING SHRA BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. CIGS MAY LOWER A BIT INTO THE
EVENING...BUT STILL THINK VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FEW040 INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. LOWER HUMIDITY TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT
AND STRONG GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 72 HOUR Q3 ACCUMULATION
SHOWS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE SEEN
A GOOD 0.75 INCH TO 1 INCH PLUS OF PRECIPITATION. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS NEARLY NON EXISTENT THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH COORDINATED FOR MUCH OF THE MINNESOTA AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>084-091-092.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE
FIRE WEATHER...DWE


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