Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 070916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF
NUANCES TO DEAL WITH IN TODAYS FORECAST...BUT WILL TRY TO LAY
EVERYTHING OUT HERE.

OVERVIEW...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS NNE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW WILL FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN ONTARIO ON AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

PRECIP...MOST PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVER THE PAST 36 HRS
HAS BEEN TIED TO THETA-E ADVECTION IN VARIOUS LEVELS. THIS WILL NOT
BE THE CASE TODAY AS MUCH OF THE NON-SFC LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR
HAS ARRIVED. THE BULK OF ONGOING PRECIP/CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE
CWA. THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS LINES UP WITH THE SFC COLD
FRONT ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD
BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...SO EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE CWA...INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. AM NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500
J/KG FAR WEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WITH THESE SHOWERS. CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
MAIN WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT STRETCHED THIS EVENING AS
THE SE EXTENT OF THE TROUGH TRACKS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MAIN WAVE.
THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED BY ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS...A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KTS FROM ABOUT 750 TO 825 HPA
WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...MIXING WILL BRING DOWN SOME OF THAT
MOMENTUM. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF GUSTS ARE EVEN HIGHER IF THERE IS MORE
MIXING THAN IS ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM
WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM TOWARD THE SFC. WITH
DCAPE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...VERY GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TEMPS...MIXING TO H8 TEMPS OF 13 TO 15C WILL YIELD SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODERATION. THIS IS ABOUT
20F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. WHILE TEMPS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS...THEY COULD CREEP
EVEN HIGHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL IF CLOUDS REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED.

FIRE WX...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE...AFTERNOON
RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COMBINING THIS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS AND WINDS...ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY THE
WESTERN THIRD AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HIGHER
FIRE WX INDICES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT NOTING THESE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 513 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

LINGERING WARM CONDITIONS FRI AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE SW CONUS CLOSED LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE WRN LAKES BY LATE SUN INTO TUE.

FRI...A SURFACE LOW LIFTING ENE ACROSS JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
UPPER MI BY 18Z MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR TO AROUND 35
KNOTS...CONDITIONS WILL MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT CLOUD COVER AND
HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RAGNE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S S SCNTRL.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MID LEVEL FGEN NORTH OF THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY
MAY SUPPORT SOME PCPN INTO MAINLY THE SOUTH AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT WILL
INHIBIT MOISTURE FLOW AND PCPN DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. SINCE THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM BRINGING THE MORE EXTENSIVE PCPN
INTO UPPER MI...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED CNTRL WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY. WITH UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE UPPER
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH CNTRL SAT MORNING.

SUN-TUE...AS THE SW CONUS CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE
PLAINS...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF PCPN WILL SPREAD
NORTH TOWARD THE WRN LAKES LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING MOISTURE... INCREASING DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND 295-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER...EXPECT COLD CONDITIONS UNDER A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AS THE
SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM IS FCST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF
UPPER MI. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN MON NIGHT INTO TUE ECMWF/GFS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT SUGGEST THE PCPN MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OVER THE WEST HALF ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...A COATING OF
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MAINLY GRASSY SRFACES.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS THE
MID-LVL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TUE NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE WED WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FROM THE LOWER TO MID
50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT CMX AND SAW AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES OVER THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AT IWD SHOULD MITIGATE LLWS
THERE. DEEPER MIXING BY THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT IWD
AND CMX. CONFIDENCE LOW RIGHT NOW ABOUT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES AND
LEFT THEM OUT OF FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO
A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FALLING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG AWAY FROM THE UPPER MI MAINLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER LAKES...NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KLUBER



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