Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 060829
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH VERY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS MORNING.

A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE
OHIO VALLEY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE. MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHING
ACROSS THE PAC NW IS KICKING OUT A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A BROAD SFC TROUGH SPANNING THE EXTENT OF THE
U.S. ROCKIES WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
MID-LEVEL LOW.

AS OF 08Z...A NARROW LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM NEAR
BRAINERD MN TO GREEN BAY TO MUSKEGON CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS TIED TO A WARM FRONT/THETA-E
ADVECTION IN A LAYER FROM 925 TO 850 HPA. OUTSIDE OF THIS...FORCING
IS MINIMAL. WHILE THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND VERY DRY SFC AIR ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THEY CROSS INTO UPPER
MI. TRENDS OFF THE KGRB RADAR SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS CENTRAL WI ARE STRUGGLING TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE SFC. IN FACT...AREA OBS INDICATE THAT IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
EVEN ACCUMULATE A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH UNDER THE MORE
PRONOUNCED REFLECTIVITIES. WITH THE DECAYING TREND...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI THIS
MORNING.

LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THE PRECIP.
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME SUN COMBINED WITH RISING 925 TO 850 HPA
TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE FOR THE INTERIOR.

LATE TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING FORCING
TIED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TROUGH...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
AREA DRY TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...SOME MID-LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...SO SPRINKLES OR A STRAY VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL RESIDE FROM N MANITOBA THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER AND LOWER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE W-SW. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE IN THE 500MB SW
FLOW OVER THE N PLAINS.

SE FLOW IN THE EVENING AT THE SFC WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE S
OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS AND 850MB TEMPS
OF 11-12C SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S FAR W. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE LOW 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR W DOWNSLOPE AREAS LOOKS
REASONABLE. OTHER LOCATIONS OVER THE E AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR...ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE RH VALUES
IN THE FWF.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY...WITH FCST
SOLUTIONS STILL GOING ON THE IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL EITHER END UP
JUST FAR W OF MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO OUR S. MUCH OF THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO OUR SW. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SW...CLOSER TO THE NEARING COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE NW HALF OF
MN. THERE IS STILL SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST
SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE 05/00Z ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS SLOWER NOW
THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM 24HRS AGO...WHEN THE ECMWF WAS
ON THE FAST SIDE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A BLENDED SOLUTION IS
MOST REASONABLE...AS THE ECMWF IS BACKED UP BY THE SLOWER 05/00Z
CANADIAN AND WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKEST IT IS RUNNING IN
LINE WITH THE 05/12Z NAM.

LOOK FOR THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AROUND 06Z FRIDAY TO EJECT
NE...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT OVER E MN/FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE S PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ACT TO STALL THE FRONT
ACROSS LOWER MI /AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR E UPPER MI/ FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH
WINDS OUT OF A MORE SW DIRECTION. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVER 30KT GUSTS. WHILE THE GFS AGREES...IT DOES HAVE A
STRONGER INVERSION SET UP E WITH LIMIT MIXING...AND OVERALL LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE W.

OVER THE W TWO-THIRDS OF UPPER MI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING...BUILDING IN FROM W CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z SUNDAY. WILL AGAIN FOLLOW A BLENDED
SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES COMPARING THE ECMWF PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OVER S MN/SW WI
AT 12Z AND THE GFS WHICH HAS IT STILL OVER NE/KS. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS S WI /CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION/ ON
MONDAY...AND ACROSS S LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING E. WITH
EITHER SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW TO OUR S...WILL CONTINUE THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE S HALF OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE INCRSG MID/HI CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN LINGERING DRY LLVL AIRMASS. BUT STEADY S FLOW/
INCRSG LLVL MSTR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI TOWARD SUNRISE
WL RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA/MVFR CIGS AT IWD.
CMX AND SAW SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR NO WORSE THAN VFR
CONDITIONS. EVEN AT IWD...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTN
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING/ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER
PLATFORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG AWAY FROM THE UPPER MI
MAINLAND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...BRINGING NW WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER ONTARIO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...N TO NE WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER


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