Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 041718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY MOVING INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN...PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IR LOOP SHOWED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CLEARING ONLY OVER THE
FAR WEST.

TODAY...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DEPART EARLY LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING. MIXING TO AROUND 5K FEET INLAND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE WEAK NRLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP READINGS IN
THE 50S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...INLAND RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF TO 20 TO 25
PCT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN BELOW.25 INCH AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED UNDER THE SFC HIGH...MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TYPICAL INLAND COLD LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.

WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRS BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE W-NW TODAY. EXPECT THE HIGH TO DRIFT
INTO SE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO...AD A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE ONTARIO HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC.
THE LOW WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THU INTO THU NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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