Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT BOTH
KIWD AND KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AT KIWD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA



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