Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING W INTO THE UPR LKS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR
TROF IS NEAR THE SOO AND SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN THE NE UPR FLOW ARND
THE CLOSED LO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLDS TO ERN UPR
MI...BUT ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN TO THE E OF THE
CWA. THERE IS ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATING TO THE WSW
ARND THE CLOSED LO. 12Z RAOB FM MOOSONEE ONTARIO SHOWED DEEP
SATURATION. UNDER THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED TO THE E...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF LO CLDS E AND NE OF THE SOO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MSTR.
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS FARTHER TO THE W AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB AND
INL RAOBS /12Z PWAT AT THOSE LOCATIONS WAS ABOUT 0.25 INCH AND AS
LITTLE AS 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ IS MAINTAINING MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF LK SUP...BUT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 40 ALONG THE CHILLY
LK SUP SHORE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF
LO CLDS TO THE NE TO IMPACT UPR MI AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TNGT...AS SECOND SHRTWV NOW OVER WRN QUEBEC ROTATES SWWD AND OVER
FAR ERN UPR MI...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AND
ADVECT THE MORE COPIOUS LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS. IN CONCERT WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT WL END DEEP MIXING...EXPECT BKN-OVC LO CLDS
TO DVLP OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL AND ERN CWA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV
ARE FCST TO BRUSH THE ERN CWA...THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PCPN WL REMAIN TO THE E OF THAT AREA WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO
DRY. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS DO GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER
MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WL
BE MAXIMIZED. OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN
THESE AREAS LATE TNGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
FAR W...WHICH WL BE FARTHER FM THE INCOMING HIER LLVL MSTR AND WHERE
DOWNSLOPE...MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS WL
RESTRICT THE POTENTIAL FOR LO CLDS THAT WOULD ARRIVE LATER.

MON...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN
ON FCST SDNGS...EXPECT THE LO CLDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT. THIS
PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E. H85 TEMPS WL BE CLOSE
TO 0C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR W
AND SCENTRAL WITH DEEP MIXING. BUT HI TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E WITH MORE LO CLDS/LK
MODERATION IN PERSISTENT LLVL N FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS STILL SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY POSSIBLY SHIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION
TUE INTO THU. THE 00Z/29 IS SHOWING THE MOST PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
SHOWING STRONGER ENERGY MORE DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS STILL ONLY SHOWS LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN TUE
EVENING...0.01-0.02 INCHES WED AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 0.15 INCHES
OVER THE FAR E LATE WED. LITTLE TO NO QPF SEEN FROM OTHER
MODELS...SO THE GFS IS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THAT COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT THE LACK OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LATELY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS DUE TO BOTH
AIRMASS TEMPS AND A PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN WED
AND THU AS MODELS DO AT LEAST AGREE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER
ON WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP/EXACT TEMPS FRI THROUGH SUN AS
WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRI BEING BROKEN DOWN BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWS
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF QPF ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS IDEA. GENERAL IDEA IS
THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAKE CONTROL ON SAT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON SUN AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. THE
AIRMASS DEFINITELY BECOMES WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT HOW MUCH
AND WHEN THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IS CLOUDED BY MODEL
DISAGREEMENT/VARIABILITY. COULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE
W HALF ON ONE OR TWO DAYS FRI THROUGH SUN...PROBABLY OCCURING ON SAT
IF IT DOES END UP BEING DRY/SUNNY AS CURRENTLY SHOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT MAINLY CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE THE EXPECTED NNE WIND WILL HAVE THE STRONGER
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW THAT MAY APPROACH
IFR FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IWD MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND
THE LOCATION OF THE WRN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
JUSTIFIES ONLY A SCT SKY FCST. SAW WILL SEE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES RIDGE ALIGNED
FROM NW ONTARIO THRU THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE
DRIFTS TO THE E LATER ON MON THRU TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15
KTS. A LO PRES TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT AND THEN
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE THRU THU. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT ON FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LO PRES TROF...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS
SHOULD HOLDS WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC



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