Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT E TO NE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW E...AND S-SE LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE MI
FROM AROUND ESC AND S. WILL LESS MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT DEW POINTS E OF ESC NEAR LAKE MI TO BE FAIRLY LOW
WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 25 PERCENT. UNDER THE SFC
HIGH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS WITH THE MODEL INDICATED RAIN ALONG THE WI
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF THE SW WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE N SHOWERS. TAKING
A LOOK AT INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL SW OF THE CWA
EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER.

PW VALUES THAT BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 0.10IN DURING THE 00-06Z TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOW IMPROVE TO AROUND 0.6IN W TO 0.25IN E
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM W SD
THROUGH W KS AT 12Z SHIFTS TO NW MO. THAT AND THE 850MB TEMPS RISING
FROM AROUND -12C THIS MORNING TO -3C W TO -10C E WILL MEAN THAT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAT WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS
MORNING /ESPECIALLY W AND CENTRAL/. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW
20S TO NEAR 32F /WARMEST NEAR IWD AND MNM/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FRI NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE NAM
AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN...SUPPORTED BY 300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THROUGH NW WI INTO WRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...THE FCST
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.

SAT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WRN LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN AND NW ONTARIO
AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE ERN LAKES. WITH
LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH
HALF.

MON-THU...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING ANY PCPN WITH A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING TO THE SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION BY
THU...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING...
BRINGING TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3 TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IWD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM W SD THROUGH W
KS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO N MO BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
IWD COULD SEE A VERY SMALL POTENTIAL OF -SHRA AND HIGH END MVFR
CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE 18Z FRIDAY TO 03Z SATURDAY AS A
THIN AREA OF -SHRA DEVELOPS WELL TO THE N OF A WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE
VCSH IN THE TAF FOR IWD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL SETTLE FROM ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS LESS THAN 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A LOW TRACKING S OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW NE WINDS
TO FUNNEL OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BRINGING A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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