Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 232052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TONIGHT...AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...MODELS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 0.15 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AND
CENTRAL FCST AREA. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOOK FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WL SIDE ON COLDER END OF TEMP
GUIDANCE (GENERALLY BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN). EXPECT MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR LOWS...COLDEST INLAND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN IN FAR
WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME OF MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM AND
GFS...SHOW AN INCREASE IN 290-295 ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID-LVL Q-
VECT CONV AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM MID-LVL TROF OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A GRADUALLY THICKENING OF
MID-LVL CLOUDS FM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. IN A DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S OVER THE NW
AND NCNTRL FCST AREA (FROM COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR) TO
AROUND 50F ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

FRI NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE NAM
AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN...SUPPORTED BY 300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THROUGH NW WI INTO WRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...THE FCST
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.

SAT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WRN LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN AND NW ONTARIO
AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE ERN LAKES. WITH
LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH
HALF.

MON-THU...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING ANY PCPN WITH A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING TO THE SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION BY
THU...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING...
BRINGING TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRES
DOMINATES ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE MOVING IN FM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY KEEPING WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHEN NE WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 25 KT FRI AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH TIGHTENING THE PRES OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS



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