Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 021931
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET AND WARM SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
COLD FRONT HAS DECAYED...WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THAT MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HELP AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
AT 3AM...MOST OF THE MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD). WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
WINDS HAVE LET UP...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW-MID
40S...WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...AREAS WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND AIDED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL LIKELY SEE
ENOUGH HEATING FOR A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
WEST/CENTRAL...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. THINKING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) WILL BE
DRY...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THAT DID OCCUR UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IT EVEN SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS. IN THAT CASE...THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIKELY AIDED SOME OF THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WONDERING IF THERE COULD BE A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS TIED TO THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT
UPSTREAM (AND POCKET OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN) INDICATES THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WAS VERY
TEMPTED TO PUT IN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SECTIONS OF
THE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE AIDED
BY AN AREA OF 850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM...BUT IN THE END
OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S. FINALLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST WEEK...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-40 PERCENT...THERE
ARE ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRES TODAY. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS
WILL STAY BELOW 20MPH.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL DEPART THIS EVENING AND LEAD TO A QUIET
NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT (AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MINNESOTA) AND HELP KEEP
LOWS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO THE LOW-MID 50S OVER THE WEST. AS THAT
FRONT APPROACHES...DID SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM
THE SW CONUS AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 10C...SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S AND PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.25 INCH.
EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SUN EVENING. MLCAPE LIKELY TO AROUND 1K J/KG DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT/15-25KT AND WBZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8-10 KFT ARE MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND PCPN...EXPECT MOST
OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z WITH SOME
LINGERING PCPN OVER THE FAR S AND E LATE.

MON AND TUE...WITH COLD FRONT FROM SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT ALREADY
EAST OF THE FCST AREA...EXPECT A DRY DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...READINGS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON.

WED-FRI...PCPN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THU/FRI AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
PLAINS SFC TROUGH THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
ECMWF WAS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN LAKES COMPARED
TO THE GFS/GEM. SO...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS WITH THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS IS LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE BY THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AT KSAW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT KIWD/KSAW TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD. AT KSAW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
WILL REACH THE SITE BEFORE THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE. CURRENTLY
HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS FROM THE S. IT MAY HANG UP JUST TO THE
NORTH OF KSAW AND BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE BROUGHT THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE INTO THE
SITE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...PRECIP
WILL NEAR KIWD AND KCMX AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. DID NO ADD TO
THE TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD...GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM FAR W ONTARIO AND DEEPENS OVER HUDSON BAY
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE SUNDAY...DRAGGING A  TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/. LOOK FOR HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ND SUNDAY NIGHT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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