Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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