Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM W HUDSON BAY AND
N CANADA WILL SHIFT ITS AXIS WESTWARD TONIGHT TO W ONTARIO AND
MN...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING BACK OVERHEAD SUNDAY. UNDER A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.25-0.3IN OVER THE W
HALF...WILL LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS.

AT 500MB...COINCIDING WITH THE RETROGRADING SFC RIDGE...WE/LL SEE
THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS THE ME COAST SINK THE E-W ORIENTED
TROUGH SET UP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER...AS THE THICK CLOUDS TO THE NE NEAR. THE INITIAL QUICKLY
ADVANCING MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING SSW AROUND 16KTS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SSE PROGRESSION...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME
OF THOSE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE N CENTRAL/E CWA
OVERNIGHT. ASSISTED BY UPSLOPE N WINDS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE FROM BARAGA THROUGH MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD LIFT/MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BACK TO SCATTERED OR
BORDERLINE BROKEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOK FOR A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE THICK CLOUDS AS MORE NEAR FROM ONTARIO.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY..AND POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER TOMORROW
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN THE STEADY N WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU HUDSON BAY DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REDEVELOP W TO THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY THRU MON...FOLLOWED BY NEW SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING FROM CNTRL CANADA TO TX DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THAT WILL DRIFT E THRU LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
WEATHER HERE WITH NO CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO REACH UPPER MI
DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY THRU MON WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N WHERE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. PREVIOUSLY...IT APPEARED WARMING WOULD THEN OCCUR
THRU MID AND LATE WEEK...BUT TRENDS NOTED 24HRS AGO IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAVE HELD. THAT TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RIDGE
MIDWEEK TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND THUS FORCE SHARPER NW FLOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST FOR A TIME DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY WARMING AND RESULT IN A DAY OR TWO OF BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. COULD BE CHILLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WED WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. A LITTLE FARTHER
DOWN THE ROAD BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD THAT ENDS FRI...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND A TASTE OF SUMMER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...SUNDAY MAY 3 IN PARTICULAR.

SUN/MON...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE ON SUN...SUN WILL
BE COLDER THAN MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST WITH MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. SLIGHT WARMING WILL
OCCUR MON AS GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
ESTIMATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS SUN
AROUND 50F...THEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON MON. IT APPEARS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROADENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
CONUS/SE CANADA WILL SEND CLOUDS S AND SW INTO THE UPPER LAKES
SUN/MON. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME PERIODS OF BKN CLOUD COVER...MAYBE
EVEN OVC...SEEM PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN DIVING MORE TO THE S ONCE IT REACHES THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SINCE THE 00Z/24APR RUN...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PCPN LATER TUE
INTO WED. GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF...FCST WILL REFLECT SCHC POPS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN INTO WED. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO DIVE S AND SE...RE-ESTABLISHING A TROF IN
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN STATES FOR WED/THU AND RESULTING IN BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A DAY OR TWO. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SIGNIFICANT THE COOLING WILL BE FOR WED/THU...A
RETURN OF NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MEAN CHILLY CONDITIONS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...WED IN PARTICULAR. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 50S WED AND AROUND 60F THU.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AS SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E. AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH
WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70F ON FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH VFR
CEILINGS/VIS...A DISTURBANCE SWINGING IN FROM ONTARIO OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO MAINLY SAW BY DAYBREAK.
THERE IS EVEN A SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT CMX...BUT
OPTED FOR JUST SCT CLOUDS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIURNAL WINDS TO STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
DURING THE DAY AND GO NEARLY CALM AT NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LINGERING NE FLOW OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN AND FOCUS JUST TO THE WEST
/ACROSS W ONTARIO AND MN/ SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN AGAIN SLIDE MORE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING INTO W
ONTARIO AND MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK
WEEK...EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CROSSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY
ON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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