Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 050838
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHICH QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUE...SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP AND LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT AND
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BIASED CORRECTED LOWS. KEPT WITH THE DRY
AIR FOR TUE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. OVERALL...KEPT THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AMIDST SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA AT 12Z WED AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER
GEORGIAN BAY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIFTING NE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE A
BROAD SFC TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE U.S. ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE
THEIR TWO-DAY TREND IN LOWERING QPF ALONG AN 850 HPA WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE SW CWA WED MORNING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVING TO BE TOO MUCH TO MAINTAIN MOST
OF THE INCOMING RAIN SHOWERS FROM WI. ADDITIONALLY...THE BULK OF THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MN. HAVE THUS OPTED TO
CUT NEARLY ALL CHANCES OF PRECIP EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER THE H8 WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
CWA...THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CAPPING AROUND 750 HPA SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE SFC COLD FRONT UNDER
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM AN H8 50KT JET AND A DEVELOPING LEFT-EXIT
OF A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THU
NIGHT. HOWEVER...KEPT POPS AT JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH.

TEMPS COULD GET QUITE WARM THU IF ENOUGH AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS.
GIVEN THE CAP...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSOLATION TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST UNDER H8 TEMPS UP TO 14C. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARMER WX...MIXING INTO 35 TO 45KT WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN QUITE A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF
WEST DID NOT BENEFIT FROM SATURDAYS PRECIP...FIRE WX CONCERNS SHOULD
BE PARTIALLY MITIGATED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING
IN MIN RH VALUES ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...FIRE INDICES
ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE INCREASING FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WEST...SO THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SLOW TO ARRIVE.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AND USHERING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPS
WILL DROP ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WINDS BECOME NW.

SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM STRUGGLE TO PUSH THE COLD
FRONT FAR AWAY FROM THE CWA...LEAVING LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE HALF. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...AND GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
NEARLY ALL POPS OUT OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE N WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F NEAR
THE SHORE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCE QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH EXITING THE WESTERN CONUS. FOLLOWING THE
GFS SOLUTION...A SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK ENE
ALONG THE STALLED W TO E SFC BOUNDARY BIFURCATING THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM TRACK THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. ABUNDANT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ONLY LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO HAD TO RESORT TO USING
CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07


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