Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHICH QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUE...SO QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO SET UP AND LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT AND
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BIASED CORRECTED LOWS. KEPT WITH THE DRY
AIR FOR TUE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. OVERALL...KEPT THE
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN THE FROM SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT ON THE QPF FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALONG AN 850 HPA
WARM FRONT/300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVERALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
CWA...KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST HALF. PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH TO LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA EXITS TO THE NE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WELL SW OF THE
REGION STRUGGLES TO WORK INTO THE RIDGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
LATE TODAY WILL HELP KICK A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS
THE SW STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE A BROAD SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON WED. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WELL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CAN ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM IS QUITE SLOW...SENDING
THE TROUGH WELL NORTH AND WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
ON SATURDAY. THE GFS FALLS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BUT LEANS
TOWARD THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO CHIP
AWAY AT THE RIDGE...BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT OF
THE GFS.

WITH ALL THAT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS FORCING FROM THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE WORKS OVER THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ON SATURDAY...A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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