Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 312015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).

THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.

THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS


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