Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 242323
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY HAS BECOME WESTERLY WHICH IS ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING NORTH OF WEAK SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AFFECT FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVELS BLO H85 PER
12Z SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL/MPX REMAIN QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINLY AT H7 IS DRIVING AREA OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST WI. EVEN SOME SNOW WAS REPORTED IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA EARLIER TODAY AS TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AS THE PRECIP BEGAN.

BASED ON WHERE RAP/NAM SHOW NOSE OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THE SHRA OVER NORTHWEST WI MAY CLIP SW UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES FM IRONWOOD TO IRON
RIVER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL
PROHIBIT THE PRECIP FM MAKING IT VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THOSE AREAS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS...SHOWING
ANY SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AT 1KM OF NOTE FADING AS IT MOVES INTO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. AS TEMPS COOL ENOUGH IN BLYR AFTER SUNSET...MAY
SEE RAIN TRY TO TURN TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WANING FORCING
ALLOWS THIS PRECIP TO END. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
COATING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST /UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S/ CLOSER TO SFC HIGH AND
WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT READINGS IN UPR 20S
TO MID 30S...WARMEST WEST.

MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FM HUDSON BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TIED INTO THE HIGH
WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE STUCK IN THE 30S DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMEST TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S WILL BE ALONG WI
BORDER AND ALSO NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH NORTH WINDS COMING OFF THE
LAND OF EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN
AND NW ONTARIO AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH HALF.

THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING
AND A SLIGHT MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND GEM AND
23/12Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 24/00Z
AND 24/12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEFORE
DIVING THE SHORTWAVE SE. THIS SOLN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THAT LATEST
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE CWA TUE
INTO WED. CAA IN N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH FM CANADA AS
DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WED INTO WED NIGHT
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND.

THU-FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AND SINCE BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM MID-UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS TO BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD TEMPER THE WARMUP INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FOR LATE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A DRY NE FLOW OUT OF HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME -SHRA AT IWD THIS EVNG CLOSER TO A WARM FNT IN THE UPR
MIDWEST...THE LLVL DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CIGS/VSBY EVEN IF
SOME -RA FALLS AT THIS LOCATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA



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