Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301702
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN
LATER TODAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN TO IWD THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON TUE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RA/SN MIX TO IWD
FOR TUE MORNING AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW INTO CMX AND SAW TUE
MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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