Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 231711
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
111 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING TO APPEAR. THIS IS EVIDENT BY LOOKING AT THE LATEST SAT
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEAR SKY
OVER W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...COLD AIR AND NW FLOW ARE
ACTING TO COUNTERACT THAT...AND ONLY BROUGHT 1HR OF A CLEAR SKY TO
IWD AROUND 07Z. WHILE THE SFC TROUGH OVER S HUDSON BAY THROUGH MAINE
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
FROM N CANADA/GREENLAND THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WILL BE NUDGING INTO
OUR AREA...AND BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS E CANADA AND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...SLOWLY EDGING NE WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...EXPECTING HIGHS NEARLY 10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OVER
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...BUT SILL AROUND 15F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WENT AGAINST THE GFS SOLUTION FOR LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON TO THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ON THE NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST SAT TRENDS AS WE MOVING THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...TO WATCH FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.

WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT...AND PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND
0.15IN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE E HALF...TOOK DOWN THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL
SPOTS. EXPECT MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR LOWS...COLDEST INLAND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER NEW
ENGLAND 12Z FRI. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH IN NEW ENGLAND ON
SAT. MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT DID PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE FAR
WEST FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND KEPT IT DRY FOR LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z MON. A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. A TROUGH IS POISED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE WHICH DOES MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON WED. LOOKS DRY FOR SUN AND MON WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS A SFC FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE
NEARBY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRES
DOMINATES ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS REPORTING NW TO
NNW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS EARLY THIS MORNING /STANNARD ROCK
AND GRANITE ISLAND/.THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY OVER THE E HALF...SLOWLY RELAXING LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS ALL
THE WAY FROM N CANADA AND GREENLAND. THE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.