Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 021950
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN STUCK WITHIN 20MI OF THE
SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF WHERE THE LAKE MI BREEZE IS
DOMINATING. BOTH SHOW UP VERY WELL OFF THE MQT 88D RADAR. TO THE W
OF THE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES /FAR E MARQUETTE COUNTY AND FAR W
ALGER COUNTY/...PLENTY OF DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED. LOOK FOR A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE CLOUDS AS WE ROLL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR W WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD AND ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH CENTRAL ND. THE SFC
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO S HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF MN BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED S WINDS USHERING IN MORE MOIST AIR...WITH
DEW POINTS AROUND 50F BY 18Z. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY AS TO WHAT
WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW NEARS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...AND OVER THE W THIRD OF
THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 3-5F WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY. KEPT THINKING SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FIRING CLOSE TO AND JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR SW CWA AND INTO WI. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE RADAR CLOSELY TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE LAND AREA
IN EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM
THE SW CONUS AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EAST INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 10C...SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S AND PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.25 INCH.
EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
SUN EVENING. MLCAPE LIKELY TO AROUND 1K J/KG DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH 0-6KM/0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT/15-25KT AND WBZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8-10 KFT ARE MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER. SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND PCPN...EXPECT MOST
OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z WITH SOME
LINGERING PCPN OVER THE FAR S AND E LATE.

MON AND TUE...WITH COLD FRONT FROM SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT ALREADY
EAST OF THE FCST AREA...EXPECT A DRY DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...READINGS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MON.

WED-FRI...PCPN CHANCES MAY DEVELOP FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THU/FRI AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
PLAINS SFC TROUGH THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
ECMWF WAS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN LAKES COMPARED
TO THE GFS/GEM. SO...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS WITH THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS IS LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE BY THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. EXPECT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AT KSAW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT KIWD/KSAW TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD. AT KSAW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
WILL REACH THE SITE BEFORE THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE. CURRENTLY
HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS FROM THE S. IT MAY HANG UP JUST TO THE
NORTH OF KSAW AND BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE BROUGHT THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE INTO THE
SITE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...PRECIP
WILL NEAR KIWD AND KCMX AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. DID NO ADD TO
THE TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD...GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD BE AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM FAR W ONTARIO AND DEEPENS OVER HUDSON BAY
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE SUNDAY...DRAGGING A  TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/. LOOK FOR HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS ND SUNDAY NIGHT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



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