RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Duluth, MN
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000 FXUS63 KDLH 241150 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 550 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FCST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT ACROSS OUR SOME OF WRN AND NRN ZONES TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP OR BECOME MORE DENSE DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IS HOLDING A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT BY AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO FINALLY MOVE EAST THEN DISSOLVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO RUSH THINGS... EVEN FASTER THAN THE TOO-RAPID MODELS DO...BOTH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND ALSO TO CHANGE RAIN TO A MIX OR TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL OUT-PACE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE COLUMN WILL MAKE THE OLD SURFACE TROUGH COELESCE INTO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN EAST-WEST TROUGH DEVELOPING BACK ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARMTH TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY CONFINING AN ACTUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF THE IRON RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY. A COOL-DOWN MAY BE ESPECIALLY DELAYED ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN CONTINUING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SFC SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALBEIT LIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SNOWBELT OF NWRN WI WHERE LES SHOULD CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. BY FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND WESTERLY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE END OF ANY LES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SRLY FLOW AND WAA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE SHORT WARMING TREND. THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW...DIGGING SEWD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM. AVIATION...11/24/06Z ISSUANCE... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS OR BLO IN FG/DZ STILL EXPECTED OVNGT...ALTHO PDS OF HIGHER CONDS PSBL. CONDS TUE AFTN/EVE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS SFC TROF ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING MEETS LOW PRESS AREA MOVING UP FROM THE S TWRD LWR MI. THIS COULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDS OVR THE NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING INL AND PSBLY HIB...AND CONTD IFR/MVR OVR SWRN AREAS...INCLUDING DLH...BRD...AND HYR. THAT IS THE TREND FOLLOWED IN THE 06Z TAF SET. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 45 37 38 25 / 50 50 60 60 INL 47 34 34 20 / 40 50 60 30 BRD 46 33 36 25 / 40 30 60 50 HYR 48 39 40 29 / 40 40 60 70 ASX 46 40 41 33 / 40 50 60 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ BERDES
