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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

000
FGUS73 KDLH 292202
ESFDLH

MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-099
-113-129-052100-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
502 PM CDT FRI JAN 29 2010

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 10.3 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        VALID FEBRUARY 1, 2010 - MAY 2, 2010

FS(FT) 90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
______ ___   ___   ___   ___   ___   ___   ___   ___   ___

ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON
 10.5  6.0   6.3   6.7   7.5   8.2   8.4   8.7   9.3  10.1

PRAIRIE RIVER NEAR TACONITE
   10  3.6   3.8   4.2   4.4   4.6   5.0   5.5   5.9   6.3

SNAKE RIVER AT PINE CITY
   9   6.1   6.2   6.5   6.8   7.1   7.5   7.7   7.9   8.7

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN
   12  7.5   8.3   9.3   9.9  10.3  10.9  11.5  12.2  13.3

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY
   10  8.2   8.8   9.2   9.6   9.8  10.5  11.0  11.4  12.0

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SNOW DEPTH...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A FULL RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DLH FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.

$$