Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON



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