Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 141723
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COULD HAVE ENOUGH FILTERING OF SUNLIGHT
TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN EITHER CASE AND IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. GOOD QG FORCING WILL ARRIVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LOWER FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. DO HAVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST.

THE PRIMARY SYSTEM THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS JUST COMING ON SHORE ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BECOME
A CLOSED LOW BY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE
DIGGING SOUTH INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO IOWA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN
UNSTABLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE THIS SYSTEM AND PREFER THE THE MORE
PROLONGED EVOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED DRIER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS
VERY WELL ARE TOO HIGH ON FRIDAY AND ARE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE
CONSENSUS EXTENDED BLENDS. EXPECT THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. AS OF NOW...THE MOST
FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT AND IMPACT IOWA
IS SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO MONDAYS POPS BEING TOO HIGH
WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER LOW
PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD BRING CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH AT LEAST SOME
PEAKS AT THE SUN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A COOLER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN
DEAL WAS WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



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