Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 222031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...BEERENDS



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