Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 020450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



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