Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB


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