Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 252011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1211 PM AKDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL OFF OF THE 12Z AND 18
ANALYSIS. MODELS EXHIBIT MINIMAL SPREAD THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS
ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE MID TERM AND IN
THE LONG TERM.

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO THIN ON THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE
BUT TAKING LONGER TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. WILL
ALLOW THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES EXPIRE WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING EAST
TO WEST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE HELPING TO MIX OUT OUT THE FOG. FOG
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE INTERIOR WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICKEN WEST THROUGH FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWEST
TO LAKE MINCHUMINA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY MOSTLY
NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ADDING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S TOMORROW AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FROM CANADA. WINDS
TOMORROW IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE
ROTATES NORTHWEST AROUND A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
YUKON WHICH WILL BRING WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
MODERATION EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS TODAY AND INTO THE 20S SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LOCALLY IN THESE
AREAS TODAY HOWEVER FUELS NOT LIKELY TO SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY SO NOT EXPECTING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA TOMORROW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC APR 15


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