Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192124
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
424 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS FOR THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S SEEM PROBABLE FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ONE CAVEAT IS EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
FROST IN THIS SCENARIO BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
TO JUSTIFY A FROST ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY STARTS AT 3 AM AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM.

PERIODIC SMALL AND DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY SUBTLE FORCING FROM AFOREMENTIONED WAVES AND LOW LEVEL
WARM MOIST ADVECTION. UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES MID TO LATE WEEK
AS RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST. BUT WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA
PARALLEL TO MEAN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW...AT LEAST LOW
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BOTH DAYS. DIFFERENCES IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL OF ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND RESULTANT
FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AMPLITUDE AND GEOMETRY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE POSITION OF DRYLINE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                36  67  43  75  49 /   0  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  34  62  41  72  48 /   5  20  40  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              33  61  39  70  45 /   5  30  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  40  69  46  74  51 /   0  20  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              33  69  43  76  48 /   0  20  30  10  20
CANYON TX                  34  68  43  76  48 /   0  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               38  67  44  76  49 /   5  10  20  20  30
DALHART TX                 34  66  41  73  46 /   0  30  30  10  20
GUYMON OK                  34  64  42  72  47 /   5  20  30  10  20
HEREFORD TX                32  71  41  77  48 /   0  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                38  63  45  70  50 /   5  20  40  20  20
PAMPA TX                   33  66  43  71  49 /   5  20  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                40  66  46  72  50 /   5  10  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              42  68  49  74  52 /   5  10  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/17





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