Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180149
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.




&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NE BREEZE SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB


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