Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 041937
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... SUNNY...WARM...AND BREEZY WX PREVAILS LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

A SFC COLD FRNT AND WEAKENING MID-LVL S/WV ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE RGN OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHWRS...STRETCHING FM ONT-LK ERIE-
CNTRL OH LATE THIS AFTN...WILL PUSH EWD AND LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
TIME...AS UPR-LVL SUPPORT LESSENS WITH EWD EXTENT. WE`LL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR SHWRS LTR THIS EVE IN OUR FAR NRN AND
WRN ZNS...LOWERING TO CHC/SCHC VALUES FARTHER S AND E.

DUE TO INCRG CLDS AND A RESIDENT WARM AMS...LOWS WILL BE MILD
OVERNIGHT...ONLY GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

ON TUE...THE SFC BNDRY CONTS TO SLIP SWD...REACHING SRN OH-SRN
PA-NJ BY LTR IN THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER WV IN THE
700-500 MB LYR MOVES EWD...AND TEMPORARILY INCREASES LIFT NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZN/FRNTL BNDRY. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT SOME SHWRS TO
RE-DVLP DURG THE DAY TUE...MAINLY OVER OUR NE PA ZNS...PERHAPS
INTO SULLIVAN CNTY NY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR S THE FRNT
WILL BE/HOW FAR N THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE BY THAT TIME...WE`LL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY. ISOLD TSTMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN
OUR FAR SRN ZNS TUE AFTN...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LVL INSTAB
INDICATED IN THE MODEL DATA.

HIGHS TUE WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH LESS INSOLATION...AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AMS COMING DOWN FROM THE N (MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S-LWR 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, A FINAL WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
FROM AROUND THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THIS FEATURE HOWEVEROVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO BE WEAKER SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS TIME, FRONT PUSHES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR WARM TEMPS WITH INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP WELL TO OUR WEST OVER ONTARIO
WILL HELP BUILD UP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH SW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS
FRIDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM WEATHER INTO SATURDAY WITH
DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP AS WELL. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HOWEVER DETAILS REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY, GRADUALLY
YIELDING TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWINGING DOWN FROM ONTARIO.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

NON-RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AND
REACH KITH/KBGM/KELM BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS PUSH
SOUTH INTO NE PA FOR TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
NEAR AVP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
KAVP.

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTS AREA-WIDE TIL 7 PM.

DRY AND WINDY CONDS WILL CONTINUE DURG THE LATE AFTN HRS...WITH A
WELL MIXED BLYR ENVIRONMENT STILL IN PLACE. RH VALUES OF
15-25%...ALG WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...WILL PERSIST.

LTR TNT AND TUE...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE...AS A FRNTL BNDRY CROSSES THE RGN FROM NW TO
SE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF
FIRE WEATHER...MLJ


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