Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 070403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE AND FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT`S ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA CURRENTLY AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE 00Z KBMX RAOB
DATA...VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE SAME
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING AFTER 15Z TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS IS
KEEPING MOISTURE IN CHECK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
REX-BLOCK TYPE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OUT/WASH OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  84  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    56  85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  58  85  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  59  87  60  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      59  85  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      58  83  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  87  60  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        59  86  59  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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