Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 260237
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
837 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DECREASING SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM PARTS OF MALHEUR...CANYON AND OWYHEE COUNTIES TO THE NW AND
SE. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAD THIS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS...WHICH SHOULD DECAY BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED OVER CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY AND AS OF 823PM
THE STRONGEST CELL CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING APPEARED EAST OF DUCK
VALLEY MOVING INTO NV. CLOSER TO THE NRN LOW CENTER THERE WAS MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION /NEAR THE BLUE MTNS/ WHILE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WERE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. COULD SEE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS E VALLEY COUNTY OR S TWIN FALLS COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM...AS MENTIONED EARLIER. WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY COULD APPROACH 45 MPH THROUGH 930 OR 10
PM...WITH WINDS REBUILDING SUNDAY TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS WINDIER
AREAS /KMUO/ BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOW VFR IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL DIE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY...GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN
SHOWERS...BECOMING STRONGER UP TO 35 KTS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
IN THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NW 15-15
KTS...BECOMING NNW 20-30 KTS BY 26/12Z...AND NNW 10-20 KTS BY
27/00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION
ACROSS NEVADA WHICH EXTENDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SPLIT /A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON/ WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TO THE S-SE AND
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /GENERALLY EAST OF A MCCALL-TWIN FALLS LINE/ THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE THE W-NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WINDY CORRIDOR FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TWIN FALLS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH
STRONGER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SINCE THEY ARE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH


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