Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 031924
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY WINDS...AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CREATE
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF
LIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE CONUS. NEXT RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
5H S/W ENERGY IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS
TIME...WITH SOME LIGHTNING NOTED UPSTREAM WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT EXPECT ANY
DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING BY 01Z TONIGHT. GIVEN SFC RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...WITH A STRONG LLVL THERMAL INVERSION DEVELOPING BY MID
EVENING. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A LARGE SEPARATE IN TEMPS
FROM WARMER MID SLOPES TO COLDER/DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEY AREAS.
THINKING LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 32F SLK/NEK TO L/M 40S
CPV/SLV. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 MPH TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CPV/SLV BY SUNSET....WHICH WILL LIMIT COOLING
IN WIDER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FROM THE COMBINATION
OF LOW RH VALUES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND VERY DRY FINE
FUELS FROM THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATELY. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS LATE MONDAY AFTN...WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA
ON MONDAY AFTN. BTV 4KM AT KMSS SHOWS DEEP MIXING
WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTN THRU 750MB...WHICH SUPPORTS TRANSPORT
WINDS TO THE SFC BTWN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. ALSO...FAVORABLE ALIGNED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ORIENTATION OF THE SLV...WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY AFTN. EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AT SLK...DUE TO LOCATION OF STRONGEST 925MB TO
850MB WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE SLV...BUT THINKING GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...SOUNDINGS AT PBG/BTV AND NEWPORT
VT...SHOW GOOD DEEP LAYER MIXING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
WEAKER...SUPPORTING SFC WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 MPH. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER OVER CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND SOUTHERN VT ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT TO
THE NORTH. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO HELP TO TRANSFER SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR AROUND 850MB TO THE SURFACE ON MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES WITH BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 22% TO
28% SOUTHERN SECTION TO 28% TO 38% IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY. PROGGED
85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 8-10C ON
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MTNS TO L80S
VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF ENOUGH SUN OCCURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID NEAR THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

MEANWHILE...850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA LATE MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET...ESPECIALLY SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. BASED ON PROGGED POSITION OF NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE WILL MENTION CHC POPS SLV BY 00Z TUESDAY AND SCHC FOR
NORTHERN DACKS.

SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...EXPECT QPF/POP SHADOWING ACROSS THE
CPV...WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED. THINKING QPF WILL BE MAINLY
TERRAIN TRRN...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20 OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS ON
MONDAY NIGHT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FRONT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY IS MINIMUM WITH CAPE VALUES < 200 J/KG
SO WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. GIVEN INITIALLY THE VERY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO FALL AS VIRGA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MTNS AND CHC ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS...HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WIND.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WILL CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...JUST IN
CASE A SLOWER FROPA OCCURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
ON TUESDAY AND SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES AFTN...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AFT SUNSET. SFC RIDGE WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT
RISK OF PRECIPITATION RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOMEHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE
WARMEST DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE FRIDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPS REACH +12
TO +14C. WITH SOME SUN...80 DEGREES CERTAINLY REACHABLE. CLEAR
NIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RETURN OF CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COOLING AS MUCH LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY MID CLOUDS AND ALSO SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM...AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH AT
MPV/BTV/PBG. LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY AT
MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM MONDAY....WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 28% AND 38%. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...NORTHERN DACKS...AND
PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO NORTHERN VT...WHILE THE LOWEST
RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIP DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES HAVE RESULTED IN FINE FUELS BECOMING VERY DRY BELOW 2000
FEET...ACCORDING TO THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF FOREST...PARKS AND
REC AND NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION.
GIVEN THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WE WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL THREAT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT
THIS TIME.

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS AFTER 3 PM MONDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST
OF VERMONT OVERNIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MTNS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
FIRE WEATHER...TABER



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