Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 041802 CCA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN
05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











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