Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 190723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV
BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED
OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG.

UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L
COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF
WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD
BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END
DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700
THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST,
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY
BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER
SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES UNTIL
THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS ARE VERY SLOW RISING ONCE AGAIN. A SMALL JAM REMAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING
CLOSED.

THE ST JOHN RIVER IS LIKELY STILL JAMMED UP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING, HOWEVER THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE
HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER
MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...FARRAR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER



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