Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 032241
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
341 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY
AND THEN DIVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS
STUBBORNLY INUNDATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. SCATTERING CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BRIEF
AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT STANDARD CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY DARN DRY WITH
ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODELS STILL CONTAIN SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO ASSIGNED CLIMO
POPS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER BANK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE CLOUD BANK EXTENDS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
REDWOOD COAST THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHO A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
HAS DEVELOPED ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 15 NM OFFSHORE EKA. AN
ELONGATED EDDY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED BETWEEN KCEC AND PATRICK`S
POINT...AND THIS MAY PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL CLEARING AT KACV AND
KCEC. EXPECT CLOUDS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. AS STRATUS
LOWERS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS DID IN FACT ADVECT UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND INTO KUKI FROM 11-16Z ON LIGHT S WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY EXTEND INLAND TO KSTS TO THE S...SO NO REASON TO NOT EXPECT
A REPEAT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS A SLAM
DUNK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER IN
THE S OUTER WATERS. THE GULF OF AK LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TO INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK.

NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA WATERS ON MON WITH INITIAL PERIODS OF
16 TO 18 SECONDS. S SWELL HAS ENTERED THE WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND MON...POSSIBLY REACHING 3 TO 4 FT AT 22 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MWS FOR LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS AT S
FACING BEACHES. HAVE ALLOWED THE N NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY FOR THE N OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON MORNING. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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