Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT TRANSITED NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING...REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD CONSTITUTE
A VFR FORECAST. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA SHOULD ERODE FROM THE WEST...CLEARING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AND WACO BY 10Z. MOISTURE IS A BIT RICHER IN THE WACO
VICINITY...AND BELIEVE SOME SCATTERED FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER
10Z...TEMPORARILY LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 3 MILES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO VEER STEADILY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE DFW AND
WACO AREAS IN THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KTS BY 18Z...AND SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 21Z. SOME CROSSWIND IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AT DFW IF WIND
GUSTS REMAIN ABOVE 25KTS DURING THE 18-23Z TIME PERIOD.

BRADSHAW

&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW BRINING AN END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO CONFINE POPS TO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW THAT HAS SPENT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS NOW ON THE MOVE EASTWARD OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
THE LIFT REQUIRED TO GENERATE CONVECTION. ALREADY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG AN ORGANIZING
DRY LINE. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAS ALLOWED THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE RECOVERY
PROCESS FROM THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/STABILIZATION THAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ERODING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...BUT ABOUT 50 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CINH REMAIN. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE
SCATTERED STORMS AS THEY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WHICH IS
ENOUGH FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW -20C AND 0C HEIGHTS. BULK
WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT IS ADEQUATE FOR SOME
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WE GENERALLY EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
WITH AN EASTWARD MOTION BY EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE LINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL OR STORMS
THIS EVENING...BUT WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY SEE RAINFALL. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WHERE
THE SEVERE RISK IS GREATEST. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR DO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN
YESTERDAY SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOX WILL BE EXPANDED EASTWARD OR A
NEW ONE WILL BE ISSUED IN A FEW HOURS. AS FOR TIMING...STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES NOW THROUGH 8PM...THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM
7 TO 11 PM...AND THE EASTERN ZONES FROM 9 PM TO 2 AM. POPS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING...GRADUALLY VEERING TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE TRANSFERS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
VEERING WINDS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL
BENEFIT FROM DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING DUE TO THE DRYING
EFFECTS OF WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. STILL WE WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. SOME SEVERE THREAT DOES
EXIST...BUT IT IS LIKELY THE CELLS THAT DO FORM IN OUR CWA WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO EAST TEXAS BEFORE GROWING MATURE ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S AND MID 50S FOR LOWS. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING CAUSING LIFT AND SATURATION ALOFT. THIS WILL SURELY RESULT
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST ENOUGH. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE AND MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF SO WILL SHOW A DRY FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THEY ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SUBTLE FEATURES
IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE CAP
WILL BE PRETTY TOUGH TO OVERCOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEYING IN ON A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LIFTS AND ERODES THE CAP. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THE 70S
MID-WEEK TO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED NEXT SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  51  72  50 /  20   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              60  86  50  73  47 /  20  10   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             65  82  50  70  46 / 100  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  80  49  71  47 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          61  82  50  72  47 /  30  10   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            61  85  54  74  52 /  20  10   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           63  84  53  73  49 /  60  20   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         62  85  51  73  50 /  60  20   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  88  51  75  50 /  20  10   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  80  50  71  48 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.