Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 272204
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

AS THE RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS TX...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK FROM AN EASTERLY TO A
MORE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...THE
EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. AS A
RESULT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE. SO FAR AT 230
PM...NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW OVER THE SOUTH. THAT AREA WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE AND LESS STRATUS CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALSO
IN THE MIX...THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ADD A BOOST TO THE
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THINGS GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS...AND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE SPORTS A BIT OF A POSITIVE TILT WHICH ALLOWS
DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHICH WILL FUEL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED DRYING FROM THE NORTH COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE REACHING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR SEASONALITY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORCED EAST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
...DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DIE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH...FLATTENING THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATED A BIT MORE INFLUENCE FROM
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH INDICATED MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN FACT...THE DIURNAL TREND IS INDICATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST POSSIBLY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BY WEEKS
END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

EAST OF A N-S LINE FROM KCAG-KRIL-KCEZ SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR
STORMS EXPECT CIGS AOA 050 VSBY AOA 6SM IN -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. 03Z-10Z ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN MTNS. MTN TOPS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCD. ON TUESDAY
18Z-00Z EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS.

WEST OF THE KCAG-KRIL-KCEZ LINE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OPERATIONAL PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...EH+JOE



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