Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 020229
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1029 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...INTRODUCING WARMER AIR
TO MOST OF THE AREA AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG IT... SPREADING
PRECIPITATION INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. CLEAR SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN
ME MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT
DRIES OUT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

7 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIS EVENING
WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

PREVIOUSLY...

AT 18Z...A 1024 MILLIBAR RIDGE WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON GOES IMAGERY...SKIES
WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE UNDER THE STRONG EARLY
APRIL SUNSHINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ADDING AN ADDITIONAL BITE
TO THE AIR. WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS WE DECOUPLE AND AS
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. IT`LL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY... A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY TRANSPORT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. A WARM
FRONT WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF IT. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET EARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A LIGHT MIX COULD LINGER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT TOMORROW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S...BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES WILL COOL TO NEAR FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE SOME
PATCHY BLACK ICE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL 500MB +PNA PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD BUT IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO SEASONAL CHANGES
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HOWEVER...ERN ATLANTIC AND WRN PACIFIC
PACIFIC BLOCKING CONTINUES TO HANG ON...WHICH WILL KEEP US
GENERALLY RUNNING BLO NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED...WITH MOSTLY FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS WITH THE MOST AMPLIFIED SYSTEM IN THE
PERIOD AS 500 TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS EQUATORWARD ON FRI
AND TILTS NEG AS IT SWING THRU NEW ENGLAND SAT. FRI LOOKS TO BE
THE ONE ABV NORMAL DAY WE WILL SE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
PERHAPS AROUND 60 IN SRN NH AS AFC COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS DURING THEN
DAY AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES OVERHEAD AND WE SIT IN SFC
OCCLUSION...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH SW FLOW COULD MIX OUT SOME AFTERNOON
BREAKS OF SUN...ESECIALLY INLAND PARTS OF NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.
ANY SHRA SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING.

SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT WHICH TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BRING A ROUND OF STEADY PRECIP TO THE
AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS AND WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW AND HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATES. ATTM...BEST CHC FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
CLOSE TO THE INTL BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ME AND ALL OF SRN NH
WILL GENERALLY STAY RAIN...ALTHOUGH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE WET
SNOW AS THE PRECIP ENDS SAT AFTERNOON. ALL THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN
SAT NIGHT AND IT TURNS COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS N
AND MID TO UPPER 20S S.

WEAK LOW PRES BUILDS TO THE S ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT ALLOW
REMAIN OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE TOO FAR S...AND ANOTHER WAVE
BRINGS A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SUN NIGHT. THE EARLY TO MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED OVER THE AREA BENEATH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW THREATENING TO SET OFF PRECIP
EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THU MORNING WITH MVFR OR
BRIEF LCL IFR CONDITIONS PSBL IN NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. MVFR THU NIGHT WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT...AT LEAST
MVFR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD SEE SOME VFR AT TIMES FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH
APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.