Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 050529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT
PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







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