Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270606
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

QUIET...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COOL NORTH WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE WORK
WEEK PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY.

BY THE TIME WE REACH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REACHED
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE RETURNED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT NORTH SURFACE WINDS WERE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUED TO FLOW
INTO THE STATE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING
INTO ONTARIO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OFF THE
COAST OF NEW FOUNDLAND...AND A FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITH THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WAS RESULTING IN A FEW CLOUDS OVER EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL NORTH WINDS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THAT TWO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH THROUGH INDIANA...THE FIRST EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
SECOND ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...THESE WILL ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW CLOUDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
50S...AND CU RULE IS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. THUS WILL EXPECTED SOME
SCT AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER.

AS FOR TEMPS...MAVMOS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS YESTERDAY.
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TODAY...WILL AIM TOWARD
PERSISTENCE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY GULF
MOISTURE AND KEEPING A DRY AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS INDIANA REALLY REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MAINLY DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAYS WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS FOR
TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 2C. THUS WILL USE HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE ON TUESDAY...AND WILL AIM 2-3
DEGREES WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR LOWS WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS
SLOWLY WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE. NO NEED TO STEER FAR FROM GUIDANCE
HERE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FIRST CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE
SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MODELS BRING AN UPPER
WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS
SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A LOT OF
MOISTURE.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE LATE
WEEKEND POPS AS EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEY ALSO HAVE WAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH A MODEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL LATE WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE 050 EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE KIND TERMINAL FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...RATHER LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
040 AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS OF MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS 330-360 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY...INCREASING TO 11-14 KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/JP

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