Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070248
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A LIMITED THREAT
FOR DENSE FOG STILL EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARL MORNING HOURS
OVER THE PINE BELT REGION. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF FOG JUST A BIT WITH
KLIX 88D VWP SHOWING RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SLOWER COOLING/DECOUPLING. LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND THE 21Z SREF MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE THREAT AREA WE HAVE DELINEATED. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG AREA BASED ON NEWER GUIDANCE BUT FORECAST
THINKING IS STILL ABOUT THE SAME. OTHERWISE...RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND REMOVED ENDED POPS FOR THE EVENING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAVING DISSIPATED. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIB/HBG AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WHERE WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LIFR CATEGORY CIGS. FOG/STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THU IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY IN
FAR WESTERN AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURGE OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND COMBO OF WEAK UPPER WAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BUILD INTO AT LEAST FAR
WESTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. REST OF AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN FAR WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION BOTH THU/FRI AFTERNOONS WILL
REMAIN GENERIC AND SUBSEVERE IN NATURE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE NEXT
FEW DAYS GIVEN GENERALLY STAGNANT CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST.
DIURNAL RANGES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LARGER THAN GRASPED BY MOS
GUIDANCE OF LATE GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LAST 7 TO 10 DAYS
NECESSITATING LOWER MINS AND HIGHER MAXES THAN GUIDANCE. MINS IN
PARTICULAR SEEM TO BE OVERACHIEVING ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS WHERE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRIEST AND SURFACE RIDGE HAS GREATEST INFLUENCE.
CUT BC GUIDANCE A FEW DEGS FOR MINS IN THIS AREA.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS RESPONSIBLE FOR A MULTIDAY PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE A FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG TOWARD
OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. WHILE BEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS
WELL TO OUR NORTH...APPROACH OF FRONT AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SEASONABLE INSTABILITY...AND PASSING TROUGH RESULTS IN MODEST
INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH 500 MB FLOW FORECAST BY ECMWF TO REACH 30-40
KT BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
BEST SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TO OUR N AND W AND THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS
WILL LEAVE HWO CLEAR FOR NOW. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO REACH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY MOST AREAS MON INTO MON NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A PUSH WITH FRONT INTO TUE/WED...
RESULTING IN POPS LINGERING AND LESS OF A COOLING TREND. ACCEPTED
MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT IF THIS TREND PERSISTS IN LATER
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY NEED TO TREND A BIT
WARMER/WETTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.