Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 191727
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...TORNADO WATCH TIL 8PM I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...
...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD AND OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE...MAINLY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION BREAK OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM
OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AS
IT SPREADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TIL 8PM.

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE 68-70 MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... FOR MONDAY...COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR...AND AS A RESULT THE MODELS
DEVELOP CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POP FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
OUR AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN WE SHOULD HAVE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MORE SW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND THIS WILL REDUCE
HELICITY...SO PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. WARM AGAIN
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS OF
UPPER 70S SE GA...AROUND 80 I-10 CORRIDOR...AND LOW 80S GNV/OCF
LOOKS FINE. COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS 55-60 ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT LOW 60S COAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT THREATS THROUGH MONDAY...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN NOT MUCH
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WITH SEA BREEZES. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY STILL COME
OVER WEEKENDD... THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK OF NEXT WEEK
SYSTEM AND WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END UP.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN SQUALL LINE WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL FIELDS WITH
GAINESVILLE MOST LIKELY TO FEEL ITS IMPACT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
MOVE IN THERE BETWEEN 19-21 UTC WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2.5 KFT RANGE.

THE COAST FIELDS FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE METRO
AREA TO SAINT SIMONS ISLAND SHOULD SEE A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEVELOPING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. EXPECT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
2.5-5 KFT. THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BY 23OO
UTC AS THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE MAKES ITS RUN AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY... WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON...LOW RISK MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  85  60  77 /  30  30  20  10
SSI  69  82  65  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  69  85  64  79 /  30  30  20  10
SGJ  70  83  67  77 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  68  85  65  81 /  20  40  20  10
OCF  69  85  66  82 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER



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