Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 051833
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE DISTANT WATERS BEYOND 20
NM SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND JUST WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...NORTH OF THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
SURFACE WISE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE MOSTLY EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
UNTIL THEN...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL PROMPT 60 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT...LARGE SCALE DESCENT ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...WILL OPEN UP A 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BLOCKED FLOW ALOFT...A FORMIDABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HOLD FIRM ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING
IN MODEST LARGE SCALE DESCENT. MEANWHILE...A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REACH ACROSS MOST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL PRONOUNCED POCKETS OF DRY
AIR AND STABLE LAYERS BELOW 700 MB. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED POPS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DRAPED ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
DISSIPATES. MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL SLACKEN INTO THE
LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED. SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY ACTIVITY MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL OR MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS.
EXPECT SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AOA FL020-030...ALTOCU WITH BASES AOA
FL050-070 AND FL100-120 RESPECTIVELY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2004...A PERSISTENT CLOUD LINE PRODUCED NUMEROUS FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND WATERSPOUTS JUST WEST OF KEY WEST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 84 77 85 / 60 50 30 20
MARATHON  73 86 77 88 / 60 50 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DAF

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