Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 250622
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
801 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.


&&

.UPDATE...LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON REPORTS OF SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND IN WELLS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY FROM THIS POINT ON AND LITTLE IF ANY
VALLEY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. RCM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 326 PM /

SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF. COOL AND DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE WATER
VAPOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...DEVELOPING/MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY ONE SHOWER COULD DROP
~0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION ENDING AROUND 00Z
TO 03Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS MUCH STRONGER AND IS NEGATIVELY TILTED.
DUE TO THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS MAY BE A TAD
TOO QUICK WITH THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES. ISOLATED TS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 7000FT...BUT WILL LOWER TO MOST
VALLEY FLOORS BETWEEN 5500-6500FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS IN FAR NW NV WILL START OUT AROUND 6500FT AND LOWER
TO 5000FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING LITTLE...IF ANY...IMPACTS
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE...AND GIVEN
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
ABOVE 6500FT...BUT WILL STILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. A
TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW 6500FT...WITH
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
VALLEYS IN NORTHERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES COULD LOCALLY SEE
UP TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY A FOOT OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE HIGHEST
MTNS IN WHITE PINE AND NE NYE COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW NYE WILL APPROACH WIND ADV CRITERIA DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT/PRESSURE FALLS. MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG
GUSTS AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADV.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. A WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY...WHERE 60S/70S WILL BE PREVALENT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA
BY 18Z TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT BUT KEEPS WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES
BY WEDNESDAY. 12Z MODELS DIFFER WITH GFS NOW TRYING TO DIG A STRONG
TROF INTO NORTHERN CA WHILE THE EC MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
STILL...EITHER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY...BUT GFS WOULD IMPLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL NV. UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD WEAKER EC
MODEL IN KEEPING THE CWA DRY WITH LESS WIND AND STABILITY.

AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CWA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
BRIEFLY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 10Z AT KWMC...18Z AT KEKO
..AND 20Z AT KELY. THUS ON SATURDAY...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT THESE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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