Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 190855
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SPREADING SW TO
NE ACROSS AREA TODAY. ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LOW LVL WINDS VEERING NE TO SE AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO
N-NE AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM SW. SPC HAS LOWERED SVR THREAT
TO MARGINAL OVER EXTREME SW SECTIONS WITH JUST GENERAL TSTM
OUTLOOKED REST OF AREA. BELIEVE MAIN SVR THREAT WILL BE THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THREAT
LATE THIS AFTN. ALWAYS SOME CONCERN WITH VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF
WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS OFFSHORE
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY COOL
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

TEMPS HAVE HELD IN LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
MID-UPR 50S NRN OBX. WARM START WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
LOW-MID 70S INLAND BY EARLY AFTN EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PCPN THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...LATEST GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE WET
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO 100% ALL ZONES. DIFFLUENT
UPR FLOW AHEAD OF UPR TROF LIFTING OUT OF SRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS AREA ALONG WITH DEEP MSTR PLUME FROM
GULFMEX. SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM SW AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRES MOVES INTO WRN OH VLY. WDSPRD SHOWERS AND PSBLY SCT TSTMS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS ERN NC OVERNIGHT. QPF
LOWERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON HPC AND LATEST MODEL BLEND...BUT MOST
AREAS STILL SEEING 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

PER NEAR-TERM...MARGINAL SVR THREAT FOR SW SECTIONS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.
GENERALLY A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE THREAT WITH WDSPRD CLOUDS AND PCPN
LIMITING INSTABILITY.

MIN TEMPS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S EVEN WITH WDSPRD RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...BY MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES/
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE BEST LIFT FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET REMAINS WELL SOUTHWEST OF EASTERN NC. THE BEST
MOISTURE ALSO LIFTS WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS FALLING TO 1.20 INCHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT OR ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION. 500 MB TEMPS FALL
FROM AROUND -11/-12 C SUNDAY TO -15/-16 C MONDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS
BECOME SEVERE. GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR, CAN ALSO
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA-
BREEZE. AS DRY SLOTTING DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING, CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH ALLOWING EXCELLENT INSOLATION. INSTABILITY WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, AND LACK VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. SPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EASTERN NC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BIGGEST
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID 70S BEACHES.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. TUESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. COOL MORNING LOWS AROUND 50 REBOUND
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IN MODEST
AGREEMENT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER COOL
MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS 50 TO 55...REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNNY
COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S FAR NORTHEAST AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SHRT WV.
KEWN MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR VSBY WITH LIGHT FOG. SOME THINNING
OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR CIGS
AT KPGV DUE TO EARLY EVENING RAINFALL...AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
FOG REST OF TAF SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVERNING...WITH WDSPRD IFR CIGS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MONDAY BUT SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KPGV
AND KISO, MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUB-VFR
AVIATION CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS EASTERN NC
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY YIELDING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC THURSDAY BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING E-SE THIS AFTN AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY EVENING. PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM SW...RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING
S-SW 20-25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER WATERS LATE TODAY AND
PEAKING 6-8 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-8 FEET
MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND CURRENT
SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NC WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY, 5-15 KT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO
2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG



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