Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 042100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OVER THE SE CONUS
AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY
PATTERN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WHICH TRACKED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AL/NWFL COAST LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING MOVED QUICKLY TO THE WEST LEADING TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES FOR LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST
PHYSICAL GUIDANCE OF THE NAM 12 GUIDANCE...BASICALLY THE LAST 2
RUNS...CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON FORMING
NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL INLAND TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE AL/MS BORDER GENERALLY NEAR WAYNESBORO MS AND BUTLER AL. LATEST
RUNS FROM THE HIGHER RES WRF AND HRRR ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE THOUGH
SHOW A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRYER MODEL GUIDANCE AND WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING
OCCURS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NOW IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES NEARING 800 TO 1000 J/KG AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ANYTHING THAT DOES
FORM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR TUE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH MORE SUN THEN
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING TUES...THEN INCREASE AND VEER SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST EXPECT A
GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GOOD SOLAR
INSOLATION DURING THE DAY ON TUE. 32/EE

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. UPPER RIDGING WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SO EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 67 DEGREES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE MID 80S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER
80S ALONG THE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
INFLUENCING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
SATURDAY. THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD FINALLY KICK THE QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HOVERING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US
COASTLINE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
05.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE... WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 12
TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING
EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE...THEN INCREASING TO 12
TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE TUE MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT BEGINNING EARLY THIS
EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WELL OFFSHORE.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS A RESULT SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK
LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  83  60  84  61 /  05  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   64  82  64  83  65 /  05  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      66  82  67  82  66 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   58  84  57  85  57 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  58  84  57  85  58 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      58  85  57  85  57 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   57  86  57  86  56 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


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