Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
ONLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
THEN DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY CHC POPS FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAISED MIN TEMPS ACROSS REGION 2 TO 3 DEGREES TONIGHT AS
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

ON WEDNESDAY ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH AND
OVERDONE AREA COVERAGE IN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPS TOWARD NEWEST GUIDANCE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. ENERGY EJECTS FROM A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY.
RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO
TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER
SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SHOWERS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AT
FKL AND DUJ. NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF HEATING...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIPITATION FROM VCTS
TO VCSH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MFR FOG DEVELOPING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION...BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. FOR
NOW...HAVE JUST ADDED FOG TO BVI...WHERE FOG FREQUENTLY OCCURS...AND
AT FKL/DUJ WHERE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION AT ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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