Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 062315
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Currently severe storms across the Big Country north of the KABI
terminal. Going with a VCTS at the KABI terminal and an hour tempo
group between 03-04Z. New storms developing out into the eastern
Permian Basin and may make it east into the Concho Valley and
possibly the KSJT terminal after 01Z. Otherwise, at least isolated
thunderstorms after midnight. Widespread stratus will develop
after 06Z across West Central Texas with mainly IFR ceilings
through Thursday morning. The winds will be south with gusts to
near 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
There is currently a severe weather threat on going across West
Central Texas, with Tornado Watches in effect until 9 PM. The main
reasons for the severe weather is strong instability and bulk effective
shear of 40 to 45 knots. Have one isolated severe storm just west
of Coleman and a few showers and storms over the western Big
Country. The best potential for severe storms will be this evening
anywhere across the area. The main hazards will be isolated
tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. Have likely Pops
across the Big Country to chance Pops further south.

For Thursday, there will a another chance of thunderstorms. The
best threat for a few severe storms will be across north of the
I-20 corridor, where the instability and shear will be more
favorable. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
the best chance for severe weather will be during the afternoon
and evening.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Sunday)

There will be a chance of thunderstorms through much of the extended
period, with severe weather possible through this weekend. Upper
level southwest flow will continue on Friday across the southern
Plains with a dryline which will push into the western 1/3 of the
area during the afternoon. the combination of strong instability and
good deep layer shear will lead to scattered thunderstorms mainly
during the afternoon and evening across much of the area. A few
storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the
main threats. For Saturday, a strong upper level short wave will
rotate northeast across Texas and Oklahoma with increasing mid and
upper level ascent. At the surface, low pressure will be located
across western Kansas by Saturday afternoon with a dryline extending
south across western Texas. Thunderstorms will fire once again
across the eastern 2/3 of our area. The combination of good
instability and 0-6km shear will probably lead some storms being
severe. Also, the strong upper level forcing, along with a fast mid
level jet, may result in more significant severe weather, at least
across the eastern 1/3 of the area. This is something we will have
to watch at we get closer to the event. For Sunday, the combination
of a cold front and continue upper level southwest flow will lead to
another round of convection and the possibility for some heavy
rainfall as the deep layer flow will be unidirectional with the
possibility of training cells.

(Monday through Wednesday)

Looks like a potential wet pattern will continue across West
Central through early next week. The combination of warm air
advection above a shallow cool airmass and upper level disturbance
moving by will continue to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  82  67  84  67 /  60  50  30  50  40
San Angelo  68  86  69  87  68 /  40  30  20  30  30
Junction  68  82  69  83  68 /  30  20  20  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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