Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING OVER CUBA ARCED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE - A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHED THROUGH GA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...
AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS BETWEEN THE KEYS
AND CUBA THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND OPENS AS THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...MERGING INTO A BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE MID CONUS SURFACE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES IN A LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES NW AND NORTH FL BY MON
AFTERNOON. THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF EXITS EAST.

ONGOING PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE
WINDS AT THE COAST ARE RATHER MODEST THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STREAM DEEP MOISTURE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME ROBUST AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MON THE DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES STALLING A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO TUESDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z-20/06Z. MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR
IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AT TERMINALS. BR SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH SOME VCNTY
SHRA OR TSRA UNTIL EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND SW...GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AS A FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS AND WEAKENS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMID CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ROBUST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS TODAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  40  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  50  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  30  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  50  20  70  60
SPG  85  75  82  73 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...03/PAXTON



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