Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 031330 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
630 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNS SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN A MORE ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING. RADAR DETECTING AREA MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EAST TOWARD COLORADO CITY.

LIGHTNING STRIKES

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA,
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND SPRING MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. DUE TO
THE DRY LOW LEVELS, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT NEAR
ANY STORMS. AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN
TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS FORECAST MORE
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA
MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS AS ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY (BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S IN LAS VEGAS) THEN CLOSER TO SEASONAL CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERN JET TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF OUR FIRST SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTRODUCING EARLY SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY EXIST BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TONIGHT WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE REGION... HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE GREETED WITH QUIETER WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF DETAILS SINCE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERATED WITH THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...THAT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS AFD...OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS AND CONTINUES TO TREND THE LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST OVER
WEST/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEFORE EJECTING IT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF TRENDED
DEEPER/STRONG THAN THE 12Z RUN. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...AS POPS WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR WHICHEVER SOLUTION
VERIFIES. FOR NOW...RAN WITH A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
PACKAGE. THE OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOTTING TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF POPS ON
THURSDAY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG SIGNALS TOWARD THIS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA...THEREFORE CUT POPS
CONSIDERABLY IN THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THESE
CONCERNS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPART SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY-SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 9-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY LATE WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO WESTERLY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS...MORMON MESA...AND BEATTY CORRIDORS TODAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC
WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TODAY
OVER THE SIERRA, THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY
ARIZONA WITH BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ERRATIC WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PULLIN

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